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hillary 2016?

Posted on March 11th, 2009 in Princess Wears Prada by hireheels

While the punditry class dukes out the merits (and demerits) of President Obama’s first 50 days, I am more focused on the stunning accomplishments of his Secretary of State’s first 50 days. (By the way, you too may grade the Prez in a new poll; on last click, 61% were giving him a “F”…and that’s on leg-tinglin’ MSNBC!)

Indeed, the Clinton brand is stronger than ever, but Hillary ‘on her own’ is far more than just a brand. She is redefining leadership while stealthily, yet sternly, putting her own unique stamp on diplomacy. (How many miles has she logged?!?)

For the record, I have moved on, but couldn’t help be intrigued by this article in New York Magazine:

princess_wears_prada_byline

Hillary Clinton Supporters Try to Stay Sharp for 2016

“Hard-core Hillary supporters are fully expecting her to run again in 2016,” said one New York official with deep Clinton ties who demanded anonymity so as not to be seen as speaking for Mrs. Clinton.

You know what they say: “Once a Hillary Supporter, always a Hillary Supporter.”  And I imagine 17,999,999 others would still be on board, even in 2016. But I for one am ecstatic with Secretary Clinton’s extremely relevant role in the world today. I guess a smidgen of gratitude is due the Obama Team for finally acknowledging her worth in foreign policy, albeit in a back-handed way.

The Democratic Party, on the other hand, may not rest so easily in expecting Hillary Supporters to play nice in the sandbox and march lockstep with its agenda. We remain cautiously organized, albeit virtually. DNC Beware…We have long memories and even longer email lists!

MORE ON HILLARY 2016 Sent to Hireheels by Ricki Lieberman

When she agreed to serve as Barack Obama’s secretary of state, there was some question about what it would mean for Hillary Clinton’s political future – and more specifically, if she’d even have one.

Outside of the early days of the republic, secretaries of state do not have a track record of advancing to the presidency, or to any other prestigious elected posts. And they often don’t even last for a full presidential term, let alone two, meaning that Clinton risked finding herself out of a job – and without the public relevancy of a Senate seat to fall back on – long before the Democratic presidential nomination next comes open, presumably in 2016.

It seemed unfathomable that the ambitious Clinton, far too young (61) to be excluded from ’16 conversations, would do anything that might seriously jeopardize the possibility of running for president again some day, but already, less than two months after taking her new job, the logic behind Clinton’s move is coming into focus: A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last week found that 59 percent of voters now have a favorable opinion of Clinton, with only 22 percent viewing her unfavorably – “an all-time high” for her, as the newspaper put it.

By removing herself from the partisan warfare of the Senate and instead traveling the world as a representative of the United States, Clinton is giving voters an opportunity to view her in a much more unifying, and far less polarizing, light. The position, at least six weeks in, is elevating her stature at home. It seems doubtful Clinton would be enjoying the same bounce if she were in the Senate, arguing with Republicans about stimulus packages, bailouts and earmarks.

This bodes very well for the ’16 aspirations that she almost certainly harbors. Generally, it’s the Republican Party that nominates whichever candidate is next in line, but that tradition has also extended to the three Democratic vice presidents – Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Al Gore – of the modern era. But while it’s not out of the question that he’ll end up running, common sense suggests that Joe Biden, who will be 73 in ’16 and who seems more interested in serving as Obama’s counselor than in leveraging his office for political positioning, has already waged his final presidential campaign.

This creates an opportunity for Clinton to position herself as the de facto vice president and to use her job, as Al Gore once did with the vice presidency, to build her reputation and establish herself as the logical standard-bearer for the post-Obama Democratic Party. If the polling numbers that she has racked up early in her term hold (or even grow), it will set her apart from the other Democratic aspirants who will inevitably emerge over the next few years. At least potentially, she could leave her post sometime in Obama’s second term and then jump into the presidential race as the clear front-runner she was at the start of the ’08 cycle – except this time, she’d be far less polarizing (and it’s doubtful she’d have another Obama to deal with).

She also has the opportunity to build a strong relationship with Obama, one that might give him the kind of trust and confidence in her that would lead to him promoting her as his successor the same way Bill Clinton pushed for Gore. (Again, this assumes that Biden will not run himself.) In fact, if Biden were to decide in 2012 that he doesn’t want to serve another term as V.P., Obama would be in position to choose a replacement who would be viewed as his handpicked choice for the ’16 nod. And, if she and Obama develop a strong rapport between now and then, Clinton, with her newfound popularity and image as an international leader, would be the logical pick.

Yes, it’s ridiculously early. Clinton has toured Europe and the Middle East, but she hasn’t really done much yet. Nor has Obama laid out his complete foreign policy blueprint. Going forward, Clinton’s popularity will largely hinge on the perceived success of Obama’s overseas agenda, and it’s only too easy to envision public opinion turning against her. What if the influx of troops in Afghanistan results (where Obama’s long-term strategy is still far from clear) leads to chaos and headlines reminiscent of Iraq in 2005? And what about Iraq, where 35,000 to 50,000 troops will be left even after the U.S. “withdrawal” is completed? And so on.

But Clinton has already demonstrated how her new job has the potential to enhance her standing in advance of the next open Democratic contest. Not bad at all.

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